Modeling Political Instability: Political Culture, Governance, and Regional Relations in 161 Countries

Abstract

This paper aims to analyze the dynamics of political instability in the contemporary world. The main research objective is to identify a coherent set of predictors that could explain the dynamics of political instability in the last decade. For this general research purpose, we aimed to analyze the impact of the political culture and the functioning of the government as endogenous variables for political instability. However, we argued that interstate relations and the number of external conflicts might influence the stability of the political systems. Using quantitative research methods based on multiple linear regressions, we performed three analytical models that assess the relevance of culture, governance, interstate relations, and number of conflicts in the sphere of political instability. The models cover the period between 2010 and 2023 and the sample is compound of 161 states from the contemporary political systems. Empirical findings reveal significant differences in political instability, generated by geographical regions and historical legacy, the level of political culture, and the impact of governance in the field of public affairs. Therefore, political instability remains a pressing issue with profound implications for governance, political participation, and societal development. Quantitative results are particularly relevant for both theorists of democratic regimes and decision-makers seeking to reduce instability, mitigate polarization, and prevent potential social or political crises. Our results underscore the importance of addressing both endogenous and exogenous factors for creating political strategies for fostering political stability.